Narrow victories in Mbeere North and Malava highlight rising opposition influence as ODM consolidates Nyanza strongholds amid tensions in Kasipul and low turnout in Ugunja
NAIROBI, Kenya—November 28, 2025—Kenya’s recent wave of parliamentary by-elections across Mbeere North, Malava, Kasipul, and Ugunja has offered more than simple winners and losers. The results provide an early window into voter sentiment and potential shifts that could define the 2027 General Election.
In Mbeere North, United Democratic Alliance (UDA) candidate Leonard Muthende narrowly defeated Newton Kariuki of the Democratic Party, securing 15,802 votes to Kariuki’s 15,308. The razor-thin 494-vote margin, achieved despite the heavy presence of government officials and resources on the ground, underscores an emerging independence among voters who are increasingly willing to challenge established party dominance.
A similar story played out in Malava, where UDA’s David Ndakwa edged out DAP-K’s Seth Panyako by just 1,354 votes, highlighting growing competitiveness in constituencies previously considered safe for the ruling coalition.
In contrast, Nyanza’s ODM maintained its stronghold, albeit under contrasting circumstances. In Kasipul, Boyd Were emerged victorious with 16,819 votes against independent Philip Aroko’s 8,476, following the tragic assassination of his father, former MP Ong’ondo Were. The contest was marred by violent clashes, including serious injuries to Homa Bay Town MP Peter Kaluma, yet the win was a symbolic reaffirmation of ODM’s presence in the region, especially after the recent passing of party leader Raila Odinga.
Similarly, Moses Omondi Okoth claimed the Ugunja seat with 9,447 votes, succeeding former MP Opiyo Wandayi. While the by-election saw relatively low voter turnout, analysts note that it further strengthens ODM’s grassroots influence in Siaya County and reinforces the party’s organizational depth.
Political observers say these outcomes reveal important trends for Kenya’s political future. The narrow victories in Mbeere North and Malava suggest that the ruling party cannot rely solely on government-backed mobilisation to secure wins in every constituency.
Opposition and independent candidates are increasingly capable of making significant inroads, especially when they connect directly with local concerns. Conversely, ODM’s consolidation in Kasipul and Ugunja shows that strong party infrastructure, historical loyalty, and community engagement remain decisive, even in the face of tragic circumstances or voter fatigue.
“The by-elections show that voters are no longer simply following party labels; they are evaluating candidates on local performance and relevance,” said political analyst Charles Ndwiga. “The shrinking margins in traditionally safe seats and the persistence of ODM’s base indicate a more competitive and unpredictable electoral environment heading into 2027.”
As Kenya moves closer to the next general election, these by-election results offer more than ceremonial victories. They serve as a reminder to political parties that margins are tightening, voter behaviour is evolving, and success will increasingly hinge on responsiveness, local engagement, and the ability to navigate both opportunities and crises in a dynamic political landscape.
